China's new energy vehicle industry development -Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment
What this industry lacks the most is not money, but mature technology and an operation team that can be traded commercially.
At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the market-oriented mass production contradiction caused by the promotion and application of the fuel vehicle's own technology and the huge initial cost investment, mainly focus on the relatively mature and commercialized mass production of lithium batteries as kinetic energy. Electric vehicle segment. What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The author believes that the answer can be classified into three aspects: technology, resources, and policy.(Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment)
The key to the technical bottleneck lies in the battery
Whether in China or around the world, there is a very mature technical support and manufacturing system for shell manufacturing and vehicle assembly, so there is no need to worry too much. For new energy vehicles, although it is relatively easy to develop consumption habits, if the problems of too long charging time and too short cruising range cannot be solved, then compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the refueling is fast and the stations are densely populated. It will lose its status as a new favorite in the market.
From the perspective of marketing, the "battery replacement station" can very well relieve the troubles of battery life and charging time, and can carry out professional maintenance of the battery. But three major problems lie ahead:
First, the construction cost of the site itself is very huge, and the battery needs professional maintenance. What kind of capital partner can the battery manufacturer cooperate with to achieve this?
The second is that when consumers buy a car, the battery module in the vehicle is equivalent to paying a deposit and renting it. This part of the investment may take 3 to 10 years to return. What kind of enterprise can take such a risk?
The third is that the current battery standards have not yet been unified. Like the earliest mobile phones, standard modules and unified interfaces cannot be achieved. What kind of companies can have such forward-looking and R&D capabilities to formulate and lead standards?
Therefore, the most realistic solution at the moment is still to fast charge and increase battery life.
In the electric vehicle manufacturing chain, the "three power systems" (battery, motor, and electronic control) are very important, and the battery is the basis and decisive factor. For the lithium-ion battery with the largest commercial mass production nowadays, if you want to achieve fast charging, it is necessary to improve the original material, especially the positive electrode material, at a higher technical level, such as high nickel; if you want to achieve a significant improvement in battery life, An increase in energy density is required. It is worth noting that lithium nickel cobalt manganate has gradually become the mainstream in the past two years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has made breakthroughs in the past two years, which are laying the foundation for the development of large-capacity and long-life battery technology.
At the same time, the negative impact of security performance cannot be underestimated. For example, after the explosion of Samsung mobile phones, major airports have adopted stricter regulations on the carrying and use of lithium-ion batteries. The core problem is that it is difficult to achieve the most effective combination of capacity density and safety performance of the battery itself. At present, there is no essential breakthrough. Even graphene, which was once hotly hyped, is difficult to achieve large-scale commercial mass production within three to five years.
The core of resource troubles lies in lithium cobalt
In the past three years, the price of basic lithium salts has risen dramatically. From the end of 2014 to 2017, it climbed from less than 40,000 yuan/ton to 180,000 yuan/ton, and then dropped to about 150,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose about 4 to 5 times.
Meanwhile, the cobalt situation is looking a little crazy. Statistics show that in the past 10 years, cobalt has experienced a 400% increase from 2006 to 2008, and it has also experienced a nearly 50% increase under quantitative easing from 2009 to the first half of 2010. Based on the strong demand for ternary materials for new energy vehicles, at the end of August 2017, the cobalt quotation published by the British "Metal Bulletin" (abbreviated as MB) reached $29 per pound, but there is still more than 65% of the room for the historical high. Since cobalt ore generally exists in the form of copper-cobalt or nickel-cobalt, the price relationship between cobalt and nickel-copper cannot be ignored.
At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the market-oriented mass production contradiction caused by the promotion and application of the fuel vehicle's own technology and the huge initial cost investment, mainly focus on the relatively mature and commercialized mass production of lithium batteries as kinetic energy. Electric vehicle segment. What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The author believes that the answer can be classified into three aspects: technology, resources, and policy.(Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment)
The key to the technical bottleneck lies in the battery
Whether in China or around the world, there is a very mature technical support and manufacturing system for shell manufacturing and vehicle assembly, so there is no need to worry too much. For new energy vehicles, although it is relatively easy to develop consumption habits, if the problems of too long charging time and too short cruising range cannot be solved, then compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the refueling is fast and the stations are densely populated. It will lose its status as a new favorite in the market.
From the perspective of marketing, the "battery replacement station" can very well relieve the troubles of battery life and charging time, and can carry out professional maintenance of the battery. But three major problems lie ahead:
First, the construction cost of the site itself is very huge, and the battery needs professional maintenance. What kind of capital partner can the battery manufacturer cooperate with to achieve this?
The second is that when consumers buy a car, the battery module in the vehicle is equivalent to paying a deposit and renting it. This part of the investment may take 3 to 10 years to return. What kind of enterprise can take such a risk?
The third is that the current battery standards have not yet been unified. Like the earliest mobile phones, standard modules and unified interfaces cannot be achieved. What kind of companies can have such forward-looking and R&D capabilities to formulate and lead standards?
Therefore, the most realistic solution at the moment is still to fast charge and increase battery life.
In the electric vehicle manufacturing chain, the "three power systems" (battery, motor, and electronic control) are very important, and the battery is the basis and decisive factor. For the lithium-ion battery with the largest commercial mass production nowadays, if you want to achieve fast charging, it is necessary to improve the original material, especially the positive electrode material, at a higher technical level, such as high nickel; if you want to achieve a significant improvement in battery life, An increase in energy density is required. It is worth noting that lithium nickel cobalt manganate has gradually become the mainstream in the past two years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has made breakthroughs in the past two years, which are laying the foundation for the development of large-capacity and long-life battery technology.
At the same time, the negative impact of security performance cannot be underestimated. For example, after the explosion of Samsung mobile phones, major airports have adopted stricter regulations on the carrying and use of lithium-ion batteries. The core problem is that it is difficult to achieve the most effective combination of capacity density and safety performance of the battery itself. At present, there is no essential breakthrough. Even graphene, which was once hotly hyped, is difficult to achieve large-scale commercial mass production within three to five years.
The core of resource troubles lies in lithium cobalt
In the past three years, the price of basic lithium salts has risen dramatically. From the end of 2014 to 2017, it climbed from less than 40,000 yuan/ton to 180,000 yuan/ton, and then dropped to about 150,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose about 4 to 5 times.
Meanwhile, the cobalt situation is looking a little crazy. Statistics show that in the past 10 years, cobalt has experienced a 400% increase from 2006 to 2008, and it has also experienced a nearly 50% increase under quantitative easing from 2009 to the first half of 2010. Based on the strong demand for ternary materials for new energy vehicles, at the end of August 2017, the cobalt quotation published by the British "Metal Bulletin" (abbreviated as MB) reached $29 per pound, but there is still more than 65% of the room for the historical high. Since cobalt ore generally exists in the form of copper-cobalt or nickel-cobalt, the price relationship between cobalt and nickel-copper cannot be ignored.
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