Energy storage replacement technology begins to surge -Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment
As the price of lithium batteries rises sharply and remains high, under the background of expanding terminal demand and deepening application scenarios, alternative routes in the field of power and energy storage have begun to surge.
There are old technologies that are rejuvenating, and there are new technologies that are just emerging. No matter what, it is an excellent opportunity for development. The opportunity is coming, and the opportunity is not to be missed, and all kinds of capital are more sensitive.
01
Lithium prices remain high, and it is difficult to fall back in a short time
Lithium resource prices have risen sharply since last year. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from about 59,000 yuan/ton in early 2021 to about 490,000 yuan/ton at present, an increase of about 730%.
There are three major factors that determine the price of lithium resources:
One is the demand for downstream power lithium batteries and energy storage batteries. Electric vehicles are at the starting point where the penetration rate starts to accelerate from about 10%. Explosive models are leading, demand continues, and small power is a powerful assist. With the substantial increase in installed capacity of new energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind power, energy storage batteries are rigidly matched, and the demand is relatively high. Big and persistent.(Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment)
The second is the investment and mining of upstream lithium mines. The cycle is about 3 years. Compared with the rigid increase in downstream demand, the supply is inflexible. The global lithium mine price generally remains high. The price of lithium carbonate corresponding to the recently traded lithium concentrate price still exceeds 400,000 yuan / ton, it can be seen that the market's expectations for the future supply and demand situation are still not optimistic.
The third is lithium battery output and gross profit margin. At present, the global lithium battery production is rapidly increasing, the traditional lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery technology routes are mature, the differentiation is weakening, and the output competition is fierce. Until it tends to the lowest reasonable gross profit margin, while the upstream enjoys excess profits.
Combining the above three factors, the price of lithium resources is expected to remain high for a long time, and there may be a slight decline in stages, but the tight supply and demand situation between upstream and downstream will not be resolved in a short period of time.
02
Demand-side scenarios are diversified, and substitute technologies reveal cost-effectiveness
Under the wave of "carbon neutrality", downstream demand has "awakened" and is unstoppable, and it is difficult for the demand side to "reverse" due to a short-term price increase on the supply side.
On the demand side, not only the increase in scale, but also the diversification of scenarios. From power lithium batteries to energy storage batteries, from electric vehicles to electric two-wheelers, from electric energy storage to household energy storage, and so on.
The scenarios are diversified, and the battery demand is correspondingly diversified, which provides the possibility of survival for more technical routes. At the same time, the rising market size provides room for development.
From the relevant experience in the past, the diversification of scenarios has promoted the application expansion of traditional lithium battery technology.
In the past two years, the development and penetration of mid-to-low-end electric vehicles, electric construction machinery, and electric energy storage have directly driven the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries and have surpassed ternary batteries.
In addition, the demand for small power lithium batteries such as electric two-wheelers and electric scooters has also risen sharply, which directly stimulates the demand for ternary cylindrical batteries.
Nowadays, the diversification of scenarios has entered the deep water area, the technical route is more subdivided, and the cost or performance requirements are more refined. Naturally, more attention is paid to other technical routes other than traditional lithium batteries.
03
Typical potential replacement techniques
If the lithium battery represented by lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery has more general applicability, then in the context of growing market demand, the scenarios are more diverse, so that the technical route with relative advantages in a certain sub-scenario is also Possibility of industrialization.
Some scenarios are more sensitive to cost, some scenarios have higher requirements on cycle times or life, some scenarios have higher requirements on stability or security, and some scenarios have higher requirements on high temperature or low temperature performance, and so on.
There are old technologies that are rejuvenating, and there are new technologies that are just emerging. No matter what, it is an excellent opportunity for development. The opportunity is coming, and the opportunity is not to be missed, and all kinds of capital are more sensitive.
01
Lithium prices remain high, and it is difficult to fall back in a short time
Lithium resource prices have risen sharply since last year. The price of lithium carbonate has risen from about 59,000 yuan/ton in early 2021 to about 490,000 yuan/ton at present, an increase of about 730%.
There are three major factors that determine the price of lithium resources:
One is the demand for downstream power lithium batteries and energy storage batteries. Electric vehicles are at the starting point where the penetration rate starts to accelerate from about 10%. Explosive models are leading, demand continues, and small power is a powerful assist. With the substantial increase in installed capacity of new energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind power, energy storage batteries are rigidly matched, and the demand is relatively high. Big and persistent.(Lithium - Ion Battery Equipment)
The second is the investment and mining of upstream lithium mines. The cycle is about 3 years. Compared with the rigid increase in downstream demand, the supply is inflexible. The global lithium mine price generally remains high. The price of lithium carbonate corresponding to the recently traded lithium concentrate price still exceeds 400,000 yuan / ton, it can be seen that the market's expectations for the future supply and demand situation are still not optimistic.
The third is lithium battery output and gross profit margin. At present, the global lithium battery production is rapidly increasing, the traditional lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery technology routes are mature, the differentiation is weakening, and the output competition is fierce. Until it tends to the lowest reasonable gross profit margin, while the upstream enjoys excess profits.
Combining the above three factors, the price of lithium resources is expected to remain high for a long time, and there may be a slight decline in stages, but the tight supply and demand situation between upstream and downstream will not be resolved in a short period of time.
02
Demand-side scenarios are diversified, and substitute technologies reveal cost-effectiveness
Under the wave of "carbon neutrality", downstream demand has "awakened" and is unstoppable, and it is difficult for the demand side to "reverse" due to a short-term price increase on the supply side.
On the demand side, not only the increase in scale, but also the diversification of scenarios. From power lithium batteries to energy storage batteries, from electric vehicles to electric two-wheelers, from electric energy storage to household energy storage, and so on.
The scenarios are diversified, and the battery demand is correspondingly diversified, which provides the possibility of survival for more technical routes. At the same time, the rising market size provides room for development.
From the relevant experience in the past, the diversification of scenarios has promoted the application expansion of traditional lithium battery technology.
In the past two years, the development and penetration of mid-to-low-end electric vehicles, electric construction machinery, and electric energy storage have directly driven the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries and have surpassed ternary batteries.
In addition, the demand for small power lithium batteries such as electric two-wheelers and electric scooters has also risen sharply, which directly stimulates the demand for ternary cylindrical batteries.
Nowadays, the diversification of scenarios has entered the deep water area, the technical route is more subdivided, and the cost or performance requirements are more refined. Naturally, more attention is paid to other technical routes other than traditional lithium batteries.
03
Typical potential replacement techniques
If the lithium battery represented by lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery has more general applicability, then in the context of growing market demand, the scenarios are more diverse, so that the technical route with relative advantages in a certain sub-scenario is also Possibility of industrialization.
Some scenarios are more sensitive to cost, some scenarios have higher requirements on cycle times or life, some scenarios have higher requirements on stability or security, and some scenarios have higher requirements on high temperature or low temperature performance, and so on.
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